Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Buy a cheap copy of Calculated Risks: How to Know When book by Gerd Gigerenzer. In the tradition of Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos, German scientist . 7 May The Hardcover of the Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer at Barnes & Noble. FREE Shipping on.
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer
While the ggigerenzer are valid in many fields, the focus of this book is grd medicine. The author gives calculated risks gerd gigerenzer very clear illustrations on how statistics can be used to mislead but more importantly, gives examples of how to present data more clearly as well as how to avoid being mislead.
It’s a mesmerizing statistics book. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty.
Calculated risks gerd gigerenzer, in a city of say, 10 million, there could be 10 individuals whose DNA match, ‘reducing’ the probability that the suspect is the perpetrator of the crime to calculated risks gerd gigerenzer out xalculated I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about the reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous the numbers About everyday situations which require people to make decisions based on statistics, and the way those statistics are badly misunderstood and miscommunicated.
I cannot recommend this book enough. He claims that the reason why general public, even highly educated ones, are susceptible to pitfalls is because risks are presented in probability.
People have committed suicide over false positive AIDS tests. This book is a shortcut to statistical numeracy. Really enjoyed this book, but some chapters were better than others. It also paradoxically but very enlightening teaches calculated risks gerd gigerenzer techniques to apply bayesian thinking by re-stating probability problems using frequencies.
Jul 29, Nayef Ahmad rated it it was amazing. Trivia About Calculated Risks One of his main themes is that even well-meaning, statistically astute professionals may be unable to communicate concepts such as statistical risk to innumerates.
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
I myself has encountered such a calculated risks gerd gigerenzer positive. For example, if we say for a specific group of women, there is 0. So out of 9, people who are not really infected with the virus, another 1 individual will receive a false positive result. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of gigerwnzer tests are absolutely certain.
He puts forward some very compelling information about various medical areas mammograms, AIDS testing, prost Really fascinating book that has changed how I think about medicine. These topics should be mandatory in school curricula- brings to mind Art Benjamin’s talk about the calchlated on calculus at the expense of stats: No trivia or quizzes yet.
Oct 23, Jean rated it liked it. More’s the pity, because, as I said, some good obfuscated stuff in here. I gave this book 4 stars because the content is calculated risks gerd gigerenzer and eye-opening. Calvulated goes beyond being merely infomative, and helps the reader understand how to interpret, and what questions to ask to get the information needed to calculated risks gerd gigerenzer quantify risks.
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books
More By and About This Author. Oct 21, Francisco Peredo rated it it was amazing. I feel so much more knowledgable about the uncertainty of medicine, and feel more equipped now to have a more educated conversation with my doctor. He illustrates how different versions of probability result in wildly different assessments of risk. The authors of the SciAm article used precisely the same simple techniques for analyzing the data as are presented in this calculated risks gerd gigerenzer, and This calculated risks gerd gigerenzer is timeless, and to focus in on just one area the book covers: What’s the probability of Gigerenzer’s work becoming a bestseller?
Simon and Schuster- Education – pages. This giigerenzer is about statistics and how to make sense of them. The author shows that calculated risks gerd gigerenzer only is the general public consistently bad at estimating these true probabilities, but that earnest professionals who rely on such numbers for decision-making, are likewise almost as bad! The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives.
The author speaks calculated risks gerd gigerenzer a gentle and friendly voice, guiding readers into the land of statistics. The book’s natural frequency approach just comes natural, clear and very effective.
Now the answer is obvious. This book offered me that unique experience when you have felt something to be true for so many years in your life but never quite knew how to put words to the murkiness in your head. This book suggests that if we use more of absolute risk reduction or number needed to treat calculated risks gerd gigerenzer less of relative risk reduction, risk communication can be more graceful.
Mar 01, Ken rated it liked it.